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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 22 - 26, 2018)

dimanche 21 janvier 2018
Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair consolidated throughout last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.2300 and the support line at 1.2150. The resistance line at 1.2300 was tested unsuccessfully, and it is unlikely that price would stay above it, even if it tested again. There is going to be a directional movement this week, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went further southwards last week, testing the demand level at 0.9550, prior to the upwards bounce that occurred on Friday. Because of the expected weakness in EURUSD, it is unlikely that price would be able to go below the support level at 0.9550. Rather, price could continue going upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9650, 0.9700 and 0.9750 within the next several trading days.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD went upwards last week, having gained roughly 400 pips since January 11. The market moved above the distribution territory at 1.3900 and later closed below it on Friday. There is currently a bullish bias on the market, which would be overturned once price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.3500 and 1.3450 (which would require a very strong selling pressure). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This trading instrument is in a bearish mode. The shallow rally that was in the middle of last week, turned out to be a nice opportunity to go short. It is much more likely that price would continue going southwards this week, because there could be some weakness in USD. The demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 could be reached. On the other hand, a rally can meet some adamant impediment around the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The cross is bullish but it is quite choppy in the short-term. Should the demand zone at 134.00 get breached to the downside, the bias would turn bearish. In case price is able to go above the supply zone at 136.50, the next target would be another supply zone at 137.00 (and the recent bullish bias would become stronger). A movement to the upside is more likely, owing to a bullish outlook on some JPY pairs.

GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Despite the bearish movement that happened between January 8 and 11, this cross has been able to go upwards in a noteworthy manner last week. Between Monday and Thursday, price moved upwards by 250 pips, and then got corrected on Friday. This week, further bullish movement may enable price to reach the supply zones at 154.00, 154.50 and 155.00. There could be additional bearish corrections along the way; but they should be temporary, posing no significant threat to the bullishness in the market.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“And remember, having a working business plan will put you in the elite company of the top traders that are already living their promise.” – Dr. Van Tharp

Source: www.tallinex.com



Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 22 - 26, 2018)
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ForexMart's Forex News

jeudi 18 janvier 2018
UK Inflation Rate Fell to 3% in December

The inflation rate of Britain edged lower for the first time in six months in December, which was driven by the price of airfares and games and toys. The rate went down to 3 percent versus 3.1 percent in November, this is the fastest decline over five years. While the core measure of consumer price growth also decreased to 2.5 percent five-month low.

The British pound lost its strength on the back of the data publication and currently trades at $1.3772 as of 10:37, lower by 0.2 percent on the day. The numbers can be regarded to be the inflection point for the inflation due to impact from Sterling depreciation after the dwindling of 2016 Brexit referendum. The Bank of England along with the economists showed some projections for the possible downturn in 2018 and others predicted that the economy will be at the 2.4 percent level at the end of this year.

The drop recorded in December was mainly influenced by the technical adjustments of airfares within the inflation basket. However, the Office for National Statistics remains uncertain whether this move signaled for the beginning of a longer-term reduction in the rate. On the same month, services inflation plunged to 2.5 percent, which is the lowest in nine months.

The slackening inflation had a positive effect on households, especially those with low incomes as prices continued to rise. Economists polled by Bloomberg foresee some growth improvement in the currently weak household consumption by 2019. But, it will continue to sit below its recent average in both years. While predictions for headline inflations seems cool, but the Bank of England policymakers focused more on the changes in domestic price pressures caused by low unemployment and contraction of supplies. In November 2017, the BoE approved for an interest rate hike for the first time after 10 years and spoken about the further rate hike in the subsequent years.

According to experts, the upward pressure on inflation partially comes from the sluggish productivity growth which hit the British economy since the Great Recession. On the other hand, policymaker Silvana Tenreyro had a positive outlook during her speech on Monday. Tenreyro stated that the economy will grow in the medium term which could reverse the forecast for interest rates.


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EUR/JPY: the pair had recovered to 135.39

mercredi 17 janvier 2018
This growth prompted rumours that the Bank of Japan had reduced its purchases of Japanese 10-to-25-year government bond and 25-to-40-year bonds each by 10bn JPY (88.39m USD) this are factors affecting currency rates. Traders interpreted this as a slight tightening of monetary policy. These rumours were later quashed.

By the end of the week, the pair had recovered to 135.39. Other factors strengthening the euro include the recently published minutes of the ECB’s latest meeting on monetary policy as well as the breakthrough in coalition talks in Germany. This news pushed German bond yields up, bringing the euro along with them. The minutes revealed that the ECB may start curtailing is QE program sooner than planned.

After buyers broke through the 134.50 resistance and reached their intermediate target of 136.00, the road towards 139 opened up (162% of the 114.85 – 124.08 range). We could see a pullback before the rally recommences. If the price exits the 1-1 channel, the rally will not resume.




EUR/JPY: the pair had recovered to 135.39
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XAU/BTC - Gold Correlation?

mercredi 17 janvier 2018
Traditional Markets

Wall Street did indeed come back from its long weekend in a good mood but things quickly turned sour when investors realized that the US government may just be headed for a good old fashioned shut down by the end of the week.

Here we can see the opening bell for the Dow Jones with a nice gap above 26,000 points, a milestone for this index about difference between balance and equity. The gap was quickly covered on the downside, followed by a ramp up to a new all time high of 26,085 before seeing the worst sell-off so far this year.
Whenever there is a strong movement across different assets, it's a great opportunity to compare and contrast. Though I believe that the micro movements in digital currencies are not yet as correlated as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies this chart shows a stringing connection.

Here we can see Bitcoin in white, Gold in yellow, and the S&P 500 in blue. Just take a look at the middle of the chart and we can see that indeed Gold and Bitcoin both fell sharply at the beginning of the European session, just before the Asian investors went to bed and way before New Yorkers opened their eyes.

Of course, looking at this timeframe is sort of like looking through a straw. You don't really get the big picture. The same chart over the last 3 years shows all three assets rising fairly steadily, which is most likely explained by the copious amounts of money that's been created by central banks over the last decade.



XAU/BTC - Gold Correlation?
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EURUSD: growth to 1.2240

mercredi 17 janvier 2018
In the European session, the euro dropped after reports from Germany, where the Social Democrats are split on whether or not to join in a coalition government with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Later, a Reuters report intensified the downwards pressure on the pair. The agency reported that the ECB is unlikely to taper its bond purchasing program at their meeting next week in forex market analysis.

During trading in the US, the euro bulls completely recovered their losses. Buyers gradually pushed the price back up to the 1.2240 resistance over the course of 4 hours. As soon as this barrier was overcome, the pair’s growth gathered pace. Traders are once again losing interest in the US dollar.

In Asia, the euro has risen by 56 pips to reach 1.2323 in the space of 2 hours. I couldn’t find a reason for shorting the dollar so I’ve laid out 2 possible scenarios on today’s chart.

Due to the 85-pip drop on the euro to 1.2238, we have a contradictory situation. Now I’ll explain why.

First of all, the situation in Germany with regards to forming a coalition government has yet to be resolved. Secondly, the euro’s rise is being hindered by the upcoming ECB meeting. Thirdly, a pin bar model is forming on the daily timeframe. If the day closes at 1.2245 or lower, this will create a sell signal.

On the other hand, the trend is bullish. As we can see, despite all the negative news surrounding the euro, a lot of long positions were opened on it as it dropped to the LB balance line, leaving a long shadow on the candlestick behind them. The pin bar isn’t fully formed yet, so this could all go out the window by the end of the day.

So, what’s going to happen?

Scenario 1: continued decline on the euro to the lower boundary of the channel (at 1.2212), strengthening the bearish daily candlestick. If we see drop below 1.2195 on the hourly timeframe, there’s a possibility of a double top forming. The double bearish divergence between the price and the AO indicator works in favour of this scenario.

Scenario 2: price rebound from the 67th degree with subsequent growth to 1.2240.

The European calendar is virtually empty today. The only important report to come out is Eurozone CPI data. Today’s main event is the Bank of Canada’s meeting followed by a press conference with Governor Steven Poloz. Markets are expecting a 25-base-point hike to interest rates. It’s still unclear how markets will react to this.



EURUSD: growth to 1.2240
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mercredi 17 janvier 2018
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mercredi 17 janvier 2018
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