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EURUSD Closes Lower But With Warning Of Correction

dimanche 8 octobre 2017
EURUSD: With the pair extending its weakness other past week, more decline is envisaged. However, we should see a recovery higher in the new week. Resistance comes in at 1.1800 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1850 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1900 level where a break will expose the 1.1950 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1700 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1650 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1600 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.1550. All in all, EURUSD continues to face further bear threats but with caution.





EURUSD Closes Lower But With Warning Of Correction
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USDCHF Closes Lower On Bull Price Rejection

samedi 7 octobre 2017
USDCHF: With the pair rejecting higher prices to close flat on Friday, more weakness is envisaged in the new week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9550 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9500 level and then the 0.9450 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9650 level where a break will clear the way for more strength to occur towards the 0.9700 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9750 level. Above here if seen will turn attention to 0.9800. All in all, USDCHF faces downside pressure on price rejection.





USDCHF Closes Lower On Bull Price Rejection
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Daily Technical Strategy On Currencies & Commodities

jeudi 5 octobre 2017
GBPJPY: Bearish, Retains Its Downside Pressure

GBPJPY: The cross remains vulnerable to the downside on further weakness as it retains its bearish bias. On the downside, support comes in at the 148.00 level where a violation will aim at the 147.50 level. A break below here will target the 147.00 level followed by the 146.50 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at the 149.00 level followed by the 149.50 level. A cut through that level will set the stage for a move further higher towards the 150.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 150.50 level. All in all, GBPJPY remains weak and vulnerable to the downside.





Daily Technical Strategy On Currencies & Commodities
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 2 - 6, 2017)

dimanche 1 octobre 2017
Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market lost about 200 pips last week, went briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then went above it, to close above the support line at 1.1800. There is already a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further downwards movement is possible as price targets the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700 this week. This means that the shallow rally that was seen on Thursday and Friday may turn out to be opportunities to go short at slightly higher prices. The outlook on EUR pairs is strongly bearish for October; so EUR would be seen falling against other major currencies.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the short-term; and the bullishness is even precarious. This week, it may be possible for this pair to retain its bullishness as EURUSD slides southwards. However, the bullishness of the market would face a challenge from another quarter, which is the expected rally in CHF. CHF may begin to gain strength versus other currencies within the next two weeks, and that may make it difficult for USDCHF to experience a smooth bullish run. However, USD would also gain serious stamina around the end of October – a factor that may help USDCHF to become a clear winner at the end of the month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD was bullish in September, but the bearish correction that was witnessed throughout last week (at least a movement of 150 pips to the south) has resulted in a “sell” signal in the market. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and thus, long trades are not recommended for now. GBPUSD could reach the accumulation territories at 1.3350, 1.3300 and 1.3250 within the next several trading days.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This trading instrument has gained at least 450 pips since September 11. The movement of the market would largely be determined by whatever happens to USD this month. A strong USD means price would continue going upwards, whether gradually or swiftly. On the other hand, a weak USD may cause a serious reversal on USDJPY as price goes downwards by at least 200 pips within the next few weeks.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross dropped southwards on Monday and Tuesday and then consolidated throughout the rest of the week. However, a closer look at the market reveals that bulls have subtly moved price in their favor, leading to an invalidation of recent bearish efforts. A movement above the supply zone at 134.00 would result in corroboration of the recent bullish bias; while a movement below the demand zone at 131.50 would result in a bearish bias.

GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPJPY rose by 1,100 pips in September and got corrected on September 29, following the consolidation that took place in most part of last week. The correction was almost nothing when compared to the general bullish movement in that month. Price could continue to go upwards – but only in a limited way – owing to the expected weakness in GBP in October. This means that the market would go down by at least, 400 pips in October, thereby invalidating the current bullish bias.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Successful trading careers start with plans that specify objectives, which in turn lead to success. There are psychological benefits to establishing objectives and developing plans to reach them.” – Joe Ross

Source: www.tallinex.com



Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 2 - 6, 2017)
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CRUDE OIL Remains Bullish, Resumes its Broader Medium Term Uptrend

jeudi 28 septembre 2017
CRUDE OIL: With the commodity bullish and resuming its broader medium term uptrend on Thursday, further strength is expected in the days ahead. On the downside, support resides at the 52.00 level where a break will expose the 51.50 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 51.00 level. Further down, support resides at the 50.50 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 53.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 53.50 level. A break above here will aim at the 54.00 level and then the 54.50 level followed by the 55.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the upside medium term.





CRUDE OIL Remains Bullish, Resumes its Broader Medium Term Uptrend
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Unrealistic/irrational expectations from traders

mardi 26 septembre 2017
“If there were a cornerstone to trading it would be the ability not only to be resilient when in drawdown but also to accept that we get things wrong. Sometimes there is a flaw in our methodology that we have not seen and that we simply have been lucky up until this point. This does raise the question of when do you know you have entered this spiral of self destruction and to my way of thinking the answer is not that hard. If you have been losing money for the better part of a decade then it is fairly obvious that there is something seriously wrong in your methodology.” – Chris Tate

Can you make 1,000% returns per year from trading?

I DON’T THINK SO.

Every so I often I am party to an email from someone who should know better. This particular email was around the topic of returns that could be expected from a novice trader. This email asserted that they were looking at the order of 1,000% pa, which in anyone’s language is a tall order.

I can understand how people get these figures in their heads, the internet is awash with people claiming that you can give up your day job and intraday trade FX with $5,000 and live like royalty with no risk. Intriguingly I have once again started receiving spam emails from people claiming that options writing is a no risk cash flow generating strategy.

As such it is easy to see how peoples psyche becomes infected with this sort of nonsense and how with little real world experience they are sucked in.

However I was curious as to what the numbers would look like if you were making 1000% pa so I fired up Excel and let it rip with a starting balance of 1,000.

Please check here to see the figure: http://ift.tt/2fNKRQW

I don’t even know how to say that last number. Suffice to say that somewhere around the first months of year 7 you are the richest person in the world and by the end of year 10 I think you have all the money.

Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au

Another great quote ends this article:

“You should spend a great deal of time and thought on your exit strategies, for one very good reason: you don't make money when you enter the market, you make money when you exit the market. Far too many people focus only on market entry, or what to buy, rather than on when to sell. If you approach trading with an exit strategy, it will benefit you right away.

Your system should reflect your beliefs (i.e., who you are as a trader and as a person). Many people are just looking for “any system that works,” but if your trading system doesn’t match your beliefs about the markets, you will eventually find a way to sabotage your trading.” – Van Tharp Institute


www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader



Unrealistic/irrational expectations from traders
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 25 - 29, 2017)

dimanche 24 septembre 2017
Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
On September 18 and 19, this pair made a faint bullish attempt, only to come down on September 20 (and then went upwards on September 21 and 22). Since there is no conspicuous victory between bull and bear, the market remains in a neutral region. There is a need for price to go above the resistance line at 1.2050 (staying above it); or go below the support line at 1.1850 (staying below it). That is when there would be a directional bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has generated a bullish signal, owing to a visible bullish effort that was made last week. Price first consolidated in the first few days of the week, and then rose upwards. Further rise is possible this week, as the resistance levels at 0.9700, 0.9750 and 0.9800 are targeted. A drop below the support level at 0.9650 would force the market back into a neutral territory, while a drop below the support level at 0.9500 would end in a strong bearish bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD consolidated throughout last week – albeit in the context of an uptrend. Price has gained roughly 700 pips this month, and there are chances to gain more. The distribution territory at 1.3650 (which was tested last week) would be breached to the upside, as price goes for other distribution territories for the rest of September. The outlook on GBP pairs remain bullish for this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This trading instrument went upwards by 150 pips last week, testing the supply level at 112.50 and then getting corrected a bit lower. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which signals further bullish movement this week. The supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50 might be reached before the end of the month. The demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00 would impede bearish attacks along the way.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross has become bullish in the long-term and in the short-term. Last week price went upwards by 190 pips, and then followed a shallow correction on Friday. Following the shallow correction would be a rise towards the north, as price slashes the supply zones at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00 to the upside (possibly exceeding them). The outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bullish for this week.

GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market gained about 1,100 pips this month, before the bearish correction that was witnessed on Friday. Further bearish correction could take place, but it should not be significant enough to result in a bearish bias (JPY pairs are mostly expected to go upwards this week). The bearish correction would end up giving opportunities to join the existing bullish trend, at better prices. A gain of 200 – 300 pips is anticipated before the end of September.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading goes best when it is yoked to rewards… that are independent of the most recent trading results.” - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

Source: www.tallinex.com



Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 25 - 29, 2017)
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