Technical Reviews for Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (June 2017)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Gold began the current bullish movement on May 9, 2017 forming a bullish bias on the market. Price is currently above the support level at 1270.00, going towards the resistance level at 1280.00. Before May 9, 2017, there was a severe selling pressure in the market, but that May loss has now been fully recovered. In June, the outlook on Gold is bullish, for price is expected to go higher and higher. The initial target is located at the resistance level of 1295.22, which was the high of April. There is a possibility that the initial target would even be exceeded.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Silver is also bullish, now above the demand level at 17.2000. The market went bearish from April 17 to May 9, 2017. However, further bearish movement was rejected at 16.0613, as a serious bullish movement began, which has held up until now. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which signals more northwards journey. Price is supposed to gain a minimum of 10,000 pips this month, but the ultimately target that is unlikely to be exceeded is the high of April – 18.6493. The bullish expectation does not rule out probabilities of temporary pullbacks.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
This market, which is becoming more and more popular, has recently experienced maniacal volatility. Both the long-term and the short-term biases are bullish. Price has been going upwards from the beginning of this year, topping at 2797.27 on May 25. That was followed by volatile bearishness which lasted till the end of May. Bitcoin is now less volatile when compared to the last several days of May; plus price has been moving up gradually. The market is expected to go upwards in June, recovering the loss it suffered in May. The aforementioned high (top) of May could be reached or exceeded.


Source: www.tallinex.com

Technical Reviews for Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (June 2017)

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Like scalping ?

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TRADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

The problem of trading in uncertain times crept up on the Mentor Program Alumni forum and I have been thinking about my answer. The original answer I gave is shown below –

I think one of the things you need to be able to do is to define what uncertainty is. If you opt for volatility as a proxy for uncertainty then you see something quite interesting. The VIX which is known as the fear index and should reflect uncertainty is actually at sitting somewhere near its long term average, indicating that the players who make up this index don’t actually see any uncertainty and are not asking for an increase in the risk premium they demand. The same is true if you look at the historic volatility in the Dow which is also sitting at a 9 year low. From my perspective is the issue is not uncertainty in markets but uncertainty in decision making that is brought about by listening to external sources. If you switched off the news and all the associated commentary and simply looked at markets what would they tell you?

What has caused me to think further about this overnight is the notion of what actually is the uncertainty that is being referred to. Is it a true physical uncertainty or a psychological perception brought on by exposure to the narratives of others? I had a look at Wikipedia for a more formal definition of uncertainty and it gave the following –

Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information. However, “uncertainty is an unintelligible expression without a straightforward description”.[1] It arises in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, and information science. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence.

You will notice that the definition holds at its core the uncertainty inherent in predicting future events. In fact the science of probability is based around trying to deal with the fact that the universe is an uncertain place. However, uncertainty is the default setting in trading – the outcome of all trades is unknown until they are closed. It is this uncertainty that gives us the potential to be profitable, investments that have known or certain outcomes have no risk premium attached as such they offer little in the way of return (think bank deposit). This definition is therefore of little use in unpacking the notion of a change in traders uncertainty quotient. Granted we can respond to changes in volatility and we have tools to measure this but this is a reasonably common occurrence in trading and there are strategies that can be put in place to deal with this. In fact very basic position sizing and volatility based stops self-correct to deal with this sort of problem.

So I am drawn back to the idea that what actually changes is the tone and intensity of the narratives that people surround themselves with. This ever increasing crescendo of noise is bound to take an effect on peoples psyche particularity at present when the world appears to be spinning out of control. However, notice I used the expression appears, I used this term because appearances and reality are not the same thing. What brings some equilibrium back to the noise of others is as always context, the markets tell a completely different story. Whilst the breathless gibbering that is the media may consider the present to be the most troubled time in history and need to shout about it at every opportunity neither that markets nor history itself would agree.

This is the most salient point for traders with regards to what is considered uncertainty. Uncertainty is the environment within which we operate as a broad observation but beyond that it is actually the markets themselves that define what actually uncertainty is and they can do this by readily accessible metrics. When volatility and in turn risk premiums increase then we can say that uncertainty has increased. However, even here people try inject their own primitive narrative into events as the VIX which is a widely known measure of volatility is referred to as the fear index when it is nothing of the sort. However, this is the natural human desire for drama, we all have a friend or relative who is addicted to drama and those in the news media, particularly the financial arena and prime diva’s. So if you find yourself believing that uncertainty has increased but markets don’t agree then you will need to do something about what leaks into your brain.

Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of: http://ift.tt/1ictipJ


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TRADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

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scalping brokerage

According to me, if you want to lead a comfortable trading life first of all you have to choose the broker which does not restrict any kinds of trading techniques with scalping and hedging. in my trading career, from my first day of trading I have been using LQDFX which always ensures best trading environment for using any trading techniques by providing lowest trading spreads as well minimum margin requirements. so, my trading life is very much comfortable.

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Broker Tips

The broker can affects the result of our trading with certainly , that’s why choosing a broker should be in cool mind, please don’t choose a broker in an emotional state, we the traders should choose the broker which is more appropriate to the concept of trading that will be used , the traders who are particularly scalpers have to choose the broker which allows trading concept such as this.

Broker Tips

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share your trading strategy

There is nobody who can predict the real faction of this market place with certainly, that’s why for making profit with consistency we the trades have to depend on our trading strategies that we select according to our trading experience . From my first day of trading I have been using scalping strategy that brings profit in a short time. And for using this trading approach in a proper way I have chosen LQDFX which allows trading concept such as this including lowest trading spreads. So, my trading life is very much comfortable.

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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (May 29 – June 2, 2017)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair consolidated last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. The resistance line at 1.1250 was tested several times, but it could not be broken to the upside, owing to the ongoing consolidation. A breakout is anticipated before the end of the week, which would most probably favor bulls as the resistance line at 1.1250 is broken to the upside, but the outlook on the market is bearish for June 2017. It should be noted that certain EUR pairs may not go bearish in June.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair went sideways last week, in the context of a downtrend. Price oscillated between the support level at 0.9700 and the resistance level at 0.9800. The support level at 0.9700 was tested several times and it could not be breached to the downside – and that is exactly what would happen this week – a breakout to the downside. This week, the Greenback would be weak while the Swissie would be strong: Hence further bearish movement in the market as the support level at 0.9700 is broken to the downside. This trend would reverse when EURUSD plummets in June.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. The market was caught in an equilibrium phase from Monday to Wednesday, and then went southward on Thursday and Friday, dropping 200 pips from the distribution territory at 1.3000 to the accumulation territory at 1.2800 (a well-anticipated occurrence). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week and for the month of June. Markets would generally be quiet in June, but GBP pairs would trend seriously, going bearish in most cases.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
The market is neutral in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. There was no significant movement last week, but things could become significant before the end of this week. The demand level at 111.00 was tested many times last week, and without success. The most probable movement is southwards, as the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00 are breached to the downside.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There was no significant movement on EURJPY last week, save price went slightly bearish on Friday, in the context of an uptrend. The markets would generally be quiet in June 2017, while JPY pairs trend seriously nonetheless (just like GBP pairs). The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for June; plus the most probable direction is southwards. EUR/JPY would go downwards by at least, 300 pips within the next two weeks, and that would lead to the end of the current bullish bias.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“My personal definition of successful money management is to limit losses while at the same time providing you with an adequate opportunity to realize a profit from the trade.” – Andy Jordan

Source: www.tallinex.com

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (May 29 – June 2, 2017)

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